All Outta Luck: How the Colts Killed Andrew Luck’s Career

ayouthviewpoint
Dec 16, 2024
12 min read

By Carlos Alfonso Chaves

"Andrew Luck Press Conference." ESPN, 25 Aug. 2019.

Touted as the single greatest prospect in NFL history, Andrew Luck was on a Hall of Fame career trajectory. But after his best season, with a bright future ahead of him and the rest of the Colts team, Luck suddenly retired at the age of 29. Why? How could the brightest prospect since Peyton Manning retire at the apex of his career? Organizational incompetence is how.

Luck Before the NFL

Andrew Luck played high school ball at Stratford High School, ending as a consensus 4-star recruit and receiving scholarships nationwide. But Luck was also a brilliant individual, being named co-valedictorian of Stratford with a 6.5 GPA. Once the time came to commit to a university, Luck committed to Stanford University on an athletic scholarship. Once at Stanford, Luck lit the college scene on fire. During his 3-year tenure, he set Pac-12 records for:

Career Passing Efficiency Rating (162.8)
Career Completion Percentage (67.0%)
Single Season Completion Percentage (71.3%).

That’s in a 12-team Conference, he’s also set an unprecedented amount of records for Stanford Cardinal, but these are just a few:

All-Time Touchdown Leader (82)
Record (31-7)
Win Percentage (.817)
2nd All-Time Yards (9,430 yards)

Andrew Luck had a stellar collegiate career. Standing at 6’4, running a good 4.67 40-yard-dash, he had the physical abilities of the ideal modern quarterback. In terms of QB mechanics, Bleacher Report’s, Sigmund Bloom said “Almost everything about Luck's game looks like a polished NFL veteran quarterback.” Luck was the consensus No. 1 overall pick, and on April 26th, 2012, Andrew Luck was drafted into the Indianapolis Colts.

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck (12) passes against Oregon in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Stanford, Calif. Saturday, Nov. 12, 2011. Associated Press.

The 2011-2012 Indianapolis Colts were a trainwreck, as is expected of a team that lands the First Overall Pick in the NFL Draft. But these Colts were unique in suckitude To start the year off, their Super Bowl-winning megastar quarterback Peyton Manning was sidelined with a neck injury and missed the offseason. Sports pundits assumed he’d be back sooner or later in the season to lead the contending Colts into the playoffs. This prediction couldn’t be any further from the truth. Peyton Manning’s neck injury was far worse than expected, and his surgeries would sideline him for the rest of the season. As it would turn out, Peyton Manning was the glue holding the Colts team together, as their offense went from 4th best to 3rd worst. Their defense regressed from being a below-average 23rd rank to the 27th rank, coalescing in a league-worst 2-14 record. This rebuild was a full house rebuild, the Colts fired Head Coach Jim Caldwell, replacing him with Chuck Pagano. Furthermore, they cut their franchise cornerstone Peyton Manning, and by the end of the offseason, 11 of the 22 starters had been replaced.

Apr 26, 2012; New York, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell introduces Andrew Luck (Stanford) as the number one overall pick to the Indianapolis Colts in the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall, Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

2012-2013 Lucky Rookie Year

Andrew Luck’s 2012-2013 rookie season was exceptional by rookie standards. He set the standing record for:

Passing Yards in a Rookie Season (4,374 yards)
Total Passing Yards in a Single game for a Rookie (433 yards)

But beyond that, Andrew Luck led his Colts to an impressive 11-5 record and a playoff berth, just losing out on the Rookie of the Year award to Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (Who coincidentally also had his career ruined by inept management. Go figure). This start is made even more impressive by the fact that this team had previously gone 2-14 the year prior. Unfortunately, their season would come to an end as they lost against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. All this was done in spite of the fact that the Colts had a very poor rushing game, a bad defense, and a porous offensive line. This forced Luck to carry the offense, with the Passing Offense being ranked 7th in 2012. Overall, Luck’s career started off historically hot, and even though changes were made to the Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck was carrying a very below-average squad into national relevance. But it would be up to the Colts, namely GM Ryan Grigson and Head Coach Chuck Pagano, to create a cohesive supporting group for Luck, if Indy is to compete for a Super Bowl. One paramount detail to note is the Offensive Line, as they are tasked with defending the QB. Throughout Luck’s career, he’s had to contend with horrendous offensive lines, and due to the number of hits and sacks, Luck would have to take a game. Though there will be several mentions of the O-line, do always keep in mind the impressive numbers that Andrew recorded were put up despite his offensive line. This offensive line also didn’t receive much investment with free agents or draft capital until the last year of Luck’s career. Just in his rookie season alone, he led the league in the number of QB Knockdowns (Knockdowns are Sacks + QB Hits) with 122 total knockdowns, which just highlights how bad his offensive line is.

2013-2015: AFC Ascendance

2012-2013 brought a team that outperformed all expectations, but the 2013-2014 Colts would attempt to assert themselves as true AFC Contenders alongside New England, Denver, and Baltimore. The Colts would end up winning the AFC South. As a unit, they started off hot with a record of 7-3 through 11 weeks, with Andrew Luck raising his pass completion percentage from 54%, as a rookie, to 60.2% in his sophomore season, and cutting his interception amount in half. Even though he’d progressed as a passer, his offensive line hadn’t progressed, in fact, it regressed to the 3rd worst unit in the NFL per Bleacher Report. But the true highlight of this year wouldn’t come until Wild Card Weekend against Kansas City, in which the young QB would lead the Colts to the third-largest comeback in NFL history. Showing that Andrew Luck wasn’t an ordinary quarterback, but one able to lead his team over seemingly insurmountable odds.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck dives over the goal line in the fourth quarter of his team's 45-44 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. David Eulitt/MCT/Landov

The 2014-2015 season was stellar for the Colts as they’d made it to the AFC conference championship, just one game short of the Super Bowl. Not only did they repeat as division champs for a second straight year, but in the divisional round, they’d beaten the red-hot Broncos who were led by the old Colt Peyton Manning. During the season, Luck threw a league-leading 40 Touchdowns on top of an incredible 4700 yards. Andrew Luck played like an NFL MVP. His supporting cast on RB and defense elevated themselves from a below-average unit to a mediocre to above-average unit. Namely, the offensive line elevated itself from a dismal 29th in the league to a fine 17th per PFF. This season could and should be analyzed more thoroughly but for the sake of brevity, the 2013-2014 set sky-high expectations for Andrew Luck’s Colts.

2015-2017: Unlucky Quarterback, Worse Team

Logically speaking, each year of Andrew Luck’s career has coincided with progressive improvements, and this third year he took them to the semi-final round of the NFL playoffs, and at the bare minimum, a return to the playoffs was expected for the 2015-2016 Colts. What would follow was a massive disappointment relative to the sky-high expectations set by the team of the previous year. The Colts hadn’t made any major roster moves to bolster their biggest weaknesses, which were WR2, RB, S, and O-line. The front office, namely General Manager Ryan Grigson, was content with the roster he’d built. Once the 2015-2016 season began, Luck had regressed and got injured twice that season. He wasn’t the only one who’d regressed, as the O-line had given up 167 QB Knockdowns, with their rank plummeting to the 2nd worst O-line in the NFL. Luck’s first injury came in Week 3 when he sprained his shoulder. A seemingly standard injury that would heal fully in two to three weeks but would later prove problematic down the line. His next injury would come in November of 2015, after winning a game where he was hit 11 times under center, Luck would wake up to find blood in his urine. Upon medical inspection, it was revealed that he’d suffered a lacerated kidney and torn abdominal muscle. Luck wouldn’t suit up again for the rest of the season. In January 2016, Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star reported that when Luck had suffered his shoulder injury, he’d also suffered a torn cartilage in his ribcage and had been playing through it for the better part of the month before getting injured again. The stem of Luck’s regression proved to be playing through a torn cartilage. With regression all-around, Andrew Luck proved that he was the main man pushing a bad Colts team to relevance, as they ended the year 8-8.

The Colts hoped that this previous year was just a blip on the radar and that this regression was just Luck’s injuries, but considering that Luck was one of the most sacked Quarterbacks in the NFL, his supporting cast had proven to be below-average. This was the get-right year and a prime opportunity to reassert themselves as AFC Contenders. The 2016-2017 would prove to be an even more agonizing year for Indianapolis than the year prior. Indy would once again finish 8-8 and miss out on the playoffs. The worst part is that Andrew Luck had a stellar year, as he threw for 4200 yards and 31 Touchdowns. His passing offense ranked 5th in the NFL, as his star receiver T.Y Hilton led the league in receiving yards with 1448. If Luck was so successful and (mostly) healthy, what the hell happened?

Although the offense was a primarily passing offense, it’s imperative to note that the rushing game for the Colts ranked well below average. However, due to how prolific the passing offense was, their total offense ranked in the NFL’s Top 10 and was able to compensate for the other half of the offense’s slack. But just on the offense alone, there was a far more glaring issue. A modern NFL offense can make up for a lackluster rushing game with a prolific pass attack and vice versa, but neither run nor pass can thrive under a bad offensive line. Their O-line improved from 2nd worst to 4th worst, still giving up 138 total knockdowns, which would do an ungodly amount of damage to Luck’s body. Not only that, the running game and defense were still bad. The fact that Andrew Luck was able to will the Colts to 8-8 is a miracle in of itself. The disappointment of this season would cost much-maligned GM Ryan Grigson’s job.

The Ryan Grigson Administration

Former Colts GM Ryan Grigson has joined the Cleveland Browns as a top adviser. AP Photo/AJ Mast

The first half of this article has been mainly details the exploits and successes of Andrew Luck with only passing mentions of the rest of the team and management. But Grigson’s tenure was disastrous, as he utterly failed to build up any meaningful talent around his Quarterback. Here’s a summary of Grigson’s Tenure:

Complete Inability to build an O-line: Best ranking of his O-line was 17th, and his worst was 31st.
- In his 5 years, the Colts’ Offensive Line allowed 707 knockdowns
- Horrid run blocking which didn’t allow the Colts to establish a competent run
  game, throwing even more of the offensive load on Andrew Luck
- Unable to find a WR2 to complement Star WR1 T.Y. Hilton, as he Signed/Drafted:
- Andre Johnson (Old)
- Philip Dorsett (Disasterous Pick which overlooked glaring needs in Safety and
  OL, didn’t pan out)
- Donte Moncrief (Underwhelming)
- Reggie Wayne (Great in the Manning Era, but by this point he’s washed)
- Pierre Garcon (Talented, but Grigson let him walk)
Trent Richardson Trade
- Traded a 2014 First round draft pick to get Trent Richardson
- Sacrificed valuable draft capital for a decent running back coming off an injury
- Performed horrendously, rushing for a dismal 400 yards in 2013 and 500 in 2014.
- Labeled one of the worst trade deals in NFL history at the time, in hindsight, it’s
  just an awful trade in the grand scheme of things.

Grigson is arguably the main culprit behind Andrew Luck’s early retirement. Though not directly responsible for the on-field results, he’s the one who builds the team. His main accomplishment was drafting Andrew Luck, a pick so obvious that it doesn’t save the rest of his mistakes. Grigson was rightfully axed ahead of the 2017-2018 season and replaced by Chiefs executive Chris Ballard.

Comeback Player of the Year Coming Back into

the Forefront

2017-2018 was a lost season for the Colts, as Andrew Luck would be forced to have shoulder surgery due to lingering shoulder issues. He’d been playing through a torn labrum throughout 2016-2017, really just putting into perspective the Herculean effort put up by Luck just to be squandered. Luck never played this season, and needless to say, the team collapsed without their star QB, leading to a dismal 4-12 season. At season’s end, Head Coach Chuck Pagano was axed for failing to take his team into the playoffs for 3 straight years. During the offseason, the Colts would pick up Super Bowl-winning Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich as their new head coach to pair alongside their new GM. The Draft and Free Agency was the chance for Ballard to prove that he wasn’t another Grigson, but would bring a new age of Colts football.

And by God did they bring a new age of football to Indianapolis. In the free agency period, they brought in Tight End Eric Ebron to serve as both a compliment passing-wise and a blocking asset. They also signed experienced Guard Matt Slauson. The Colts 2018 Draft was one of the single best draft classes in Colts franchise history. They drafted Quentin Nelson in the first round and hit a home-run pick, as he’d prove to be the anchor of a rejuvenated and sturdy Colts offensive line from his very first snap. On the defensive side of the ball they’d picked up Linebacking stud Darius (Shaquille) Leonard, who’d go on to captain the defense for the next 3 years. Even with this new talent on both sides of the ball, the Colts started the 2018-2019 season horrifically. The team struggled to adapt to Frank Reich’s new offense which led to losing extremely tight games to the Texans and Eagles. By week 6, the Colts were in a massive hole at 1-5. Staring down the abyss of another lost season, the Colts needed to string a massive win streak to get back to league average. In week 7, a mediocre Bills came to town, and the Colts would absolutely beat them down, lighting a fire that would have the Colts finish their final 10 games with a 9-1 record. They would carry this momentum into the playoffs, defeating the hated Texans en route to the divisional round, where they’d be bounced out by the KC Chiefs. For his MVP-like efforts coming off surgery, Andrew Luck won Comeback Player of the Year, with Darius Leonard winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Once again, the Colts’ future looked extremely bright as it did 6 years ago with one key difference. The major difference was the talent on the team. Back in the Grigson years, Andrew Luck had to carry a below average roster to prominence, but now, he had an incredibly talented supporting cast on every level of the team, with total upwards momentum heading into the 2019-2020 season. But just as the 2019 preseason was underway, on August 24th, 2019, Andrew Luck revealed that he was retiring from football at the age of 29.

Aftermath of the Retirement

Luck announced his retirement before a 2019 preseason game. And as Luck left Lucas Oil Stadium, fans booed him on the way out. Seemingly forgetting the hell he went through to take their team into relevance. There are many reasons for his sudden retirement no one can explain his reasons better than the man himself. As per Luck:

“I guess I'll transition to this current team and why it makes it so difficult, I guess, for me to stand up here and say I'm retired. It's a great group of men. It's a great group of guys. A group that makes coming to work every feel very, very special, and I feel incredibly lucky for that.”

“No, no, I didn't wake up this morning. A week and a half, two weeks. It's been a little bit fast and furious. The lack of progress on my ankle and I'm in pain. I'm still in pain. I've been in this cycle which feels like, I mean, it's been four years of this injury, pain, rehab cycle, and for me to move forward in my life the way I want to, it doesn't involve football.”

The mental toll had finally gotten to him. The expectations placed upon Luck were monumental, and he met and exceeded each and every one of those. Luck was forced to drag the Colts into relevance, but only after 6 years did the Colts ever successfully help prop up Luck. His retirement in ultimately a culmination of the Colt’s total inability to create and build talent around their golden goose.

Andrew Luck has returned to football in 2024. Becoming Stanford’s new General Manager. Giving back to the very institution that gave him his chance at the NFL. Saying:

"I'm excited..."

"...I think Stanford is taking an assertive and innovative step. We're undoubtedly the best athletic department in college sports. We have to re-prove it in football, and we're excited to be part of that challenge."

Andrew Luck is becoming the GM of Stanford football. Getty Images

As for the Colts, they were reeling for a few years trying to slot temporary replacements that simply couldn’t replicate Luck’s skill. As of now, are hoping to develop their new young QB Anthony Richardson, and avoid the missteps of Luck’s development.

The tale of Andrew Luck is a tragic one A Hall-of-Fame trajectory completely squandered by inept management, creating arguably the greatest what-if in NFL History. But although his talents were wasted by the Indianapolis Colts, his impact upon the wider NFL can’t be understated. He set a new benchmark that all rookie Quarterbacks strive to reach, and his story serves as a heartbreaking warning to other NFL front offices.

References:

Pro Football Reference

"Pro Football Reference." Pro Football Reference.

Fox Sports

"Indianapolis Colts: 5 Moves That Got Ryan Grigson Fired." Fox Sports.

CBS Sports

Benjamin, Cody. "Andrew Luck Retires: Let’s Take a Look at the Colts Quarterbacks’ Injury History in Wake of Shocking Decision." CBS Sports.

IndyStar

Ayello, Jim. "Andrew Luck: 10 Years Ago, He Was Selected by Colts in NFL Draft." IndyStar, April 26, 2022.

CFIC Squadrone

"Stanford Brings Former QB Andrew Luck Home as New GM." CFIC Squadrone, January 12, 2024.

ESPN Player Stats

"Andrew Luck Stats." ESPN.Pro

Football Focus (PFF) Offensive Line Rankings 2014

"2014 PFF Offensive Line Rankings." Pro Football Focus.Pro

Football Focus (Homepage)

"Pro Football Focus (PFF)." Pro Football Focus.

Horseshoe Heroes

"PFF Ranks Colts as NFL’s 22nd-Best Offensive Line." Horseshoe Heroes, November 16, 2016.